Upon reviewing McKinsey Quarterly's top ten articles of 2013, I was not surprised that what topped the list was the 130-page comprehensive study on the disruptive technologies that will change the world between 2014 and 2025. For those not willing to invest the time, the executive summary is very well done. In the next few posts we will walk through some key sections of the report, discuss impacts and likelihood, and reassess some areas left out by the authors. Although I believe existing data and probabilities of breakthroughs point us in another direction than the authors suggest, the framework used to identify these disruptive technologies is very solid. The authors define a technology that truly matters is one that has:
- a high rate of technological change
- broad scope of impact
- large economic value
- and substantial disruption potential
The framework is simple and complete. However, I often see those in technology circles short-change the second item listed. A broad scope of impact technological change has the potential to impact changes of an order of magnitude in the lives of those impacted and the overall economy. For example, take the printing press. Gutenberg did not "invent" the printing press or even movable type, but what he did do was invent the mass production of interchangeable movable type. Suddenly, anyone could learn to print, and they could do so at a relatively low cost. This breakthrough, coupled with other advancements in raw paper materials, resulted in the cost of a book dropping by an order of magnitude. Inexpensive books meant cheaper distribution of knowledge, mass distribution of religious texts, and the ability for individuals to publish facts and opinions. Drastically decreasing the per unit cost of this one form of communication had an order of magnitude impact across the economies and societies of Europe and eventually the rest of the world. Forecasting economic value and disruption can be difficult when assessing a technology. Many at the time underestimated the disruption and value of mass production of movable type because the printing element of the economy was relatively small. However, it was arguably one of the greatest small steps of mankind. The same can be argued regarding the initial developments in steam power, the agronomy revolution, semiconductors, and the internet. I will argue, at the end of this series of posts, that the same can be said for autonomous vehicles, inexpensive water desalinization, energy storage, bio/chemical terrorism, and customized education. Most of these areas overlap in some aspects of the McKinsey Global Initiative (MGI) report, but I'll add a few more details as to why they could be emphasized differently or viewed in a different light than that presented.
Historic disruptive technologies have impacted most if not all of the following areas: transportation, communication, water and sewage, agriculture, energy, and manufacturing productivity. Inexpensive movable type, steam power, the agronomy revolution, semiconductors, and the internet can put a check next to most if not all those categories. Many of the technologies listed in the MGI report meet this criteria, but the potential scope of the different technologies presented vary significantly.
We are, however, talking about the future, and it does tend to have its own agenda. Although we might not have fusion to power our flying cars, we can still assess these likely impacts, and the MGI report is a perfect starting point kicking off an analysis.
- a high rate of technological change
- broad scope of impact
- large economic value
- and substantial disruption potential
The framework is simple and complete. However, I often see those in technology circles short-change the second item listed. A broad scope of impact technological change has the potential to impact changes of an order of magnitude in the lives of those impacted and the overall economy. For example, take the printing press. Gutenberg did not "invent" the printing press or even movable type, but what he did do was invent the mass production of interchangeable movable type. Suddenly, anyone could learn to print, and they could do so at a relatively low cost. This breakthrough, coupled with other advancements in raw paper materials, resulted in the cost of a book dropping by an order of magnitude. Inexpensive books meant cheaper distribution of knowledge, mass distribution of religious texts, and the ability for individuals to publish facts and opinions. Drastically decreasing the per unit cost of this one form of communication had an order of magnitude impact across the economies and societies of Europe and eventually the rest of the world. Forecasting economic value and disruption can be difficult when assessing a technology. Many at the time underestimated the disruption and value of mass production of movable type because the printing element of the economy was relatively small. However, it was arguably one of the greatest small steps of mankind. The same can be argued regarding the initial developments in steam power, the agronomy revolution, semiconductors, and the internet. I will argue, at the end of this series of posts, that the same can be said for autonomous vehicles, inexpensive water desalinization, energy storage, bio/chemical terrorism, and customized education. Most of these areas overlap in some aspects of the McKinsey Global Initiative (MGI) report, but I'll add a few more details as to why they could be emphasized differently or viewed in a different light than that presented.
Historic disruptive technologies have impacted most if not all of the following areas: transportation, communication, water and sewage, agriculture, energy, and manufacturing productivity. Inexpensive movable type, steam power, the agronomy revolution, semiconductors, and the internet can put a check next to most if not all those categories. Many of the technologies listed in the MGI report meet this criteria, but the potential scope of the different technologies presented vary significantly.
We are, however, talking about the future, and it does tend to have its own agenda. Although we might not have fusion to power our flying cars, we can still assess these likely impacts, and the MGI report is a perfect starting point kicking off an analysis.
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