I was torn on the fourth section of the Disruptive Technologies MGI paper. This is an area in which I have fewer contacts and am less familiar with the majority of the areas highlighted. Based on the material presented, I am not yet convinced that cloud technology will be disruptive and transformative over the next 10 years. It is certainly possible, but I would put it as unlikely for a number of reasons.
1) Cloud technology has had incredible advancements already over the last 10 years, and the case that "the low-hanging fruit is gone" should be weighed against the case that there is potential for acceleration (pg 62).
2) While there is potential for dramatic improvements, the scope seems fairly limited, and further improvements will be necessary for cloud technology to have the impact predicted. For example, many small and medium-sized enterprises can use cloud technology to reduce costs and put themselves on a more competitive footing with larger players. Part of this benefit would stem from easily scaling operations up or down over a much shorter period of time. However, is the difference in IT capability a significant enough barrier that this change would be clearly evident? I am not so sure. It certainly bridges some of the gap, but there are many other reasons that smaller and larger firms have their competitive advantages.
3) Cloud technology is heavily dependent on bandwidth. If the bandwidth magic bullet strikes (see previous post), cloud technology can be extremely disruptive and transformative for many industries. However, to my knowledge that is a big "if." MGI admits as such in the section on potential barriers.
1) Cloud technology has had incredible advancements already over the last 10 years, and the case that "the low-hanging fruit is gone" should be weighed against the case that there is potential for acceleration (pg 62).
2) While there is potential for dramatic improvements, the scope seems fairly limited, and further improvements will be necessary for cloud technology to have the impact predicted. For example, many small and medium-sized enterprises can use cloud technology to reduce costs and put themselves on a more competitive footing with larger players. Part of this benefit would stem from easily scaling operations up or down over a much shorter period of time. However, is the difference in IT capability a significant enough barrier that this change would be clearly evident? I am not so sure. It certainly bridges some of the gap, but there are many other reasons that smaller and larger firms have their competitive advantages.
3) Cloud technology is heavily dependent on bandwidth. If the bandwidth magic bullet strikes (see previous post), cloud technology can be extremely disruptive and transformative for many industries. However, to my knowledge that is a big "if." MGI admits as such in the section on potential barriers.
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